Syria

Aug. 26th, 2013 08:00 pm
smokingboot: (astrolabe)
[personal profile] smokingboot
I recall a clever man, a bright eyed backbencher running rings around rivals and opponents. He could think on his feet and talk fast and make sense and leave the mouthbreathers standing around looking to fellow carnies for comfort. I liked him, a lot, and knew he'd 'get somewhere.'

It was the whole WMD farce in Iraq that did for him really. Yes, Saddam and his horrible family merited an end, but the premis turned out to be false. It was the last time I really believed in Blair; the tarnish was permanent; he abandoned us to Gordo, who couldn't do the job and Blair knew that. It always felt like he was taking some obscure revenge on the Labour party. It worked though, and now we have Cameron/Clegg.

Of all the times to consider a military intervention, this must surely be the worst. And yet, there are so many parallels with the 80s I would be surprised if some possible benefits haven't occurred to Cameron. But he's not a complete fool - not a brilliant man but not a warmonger for its own sake. This would not be the Falklands, and he is more likely to face discredit a la Blair than victory a la Thatcher.

It feels very wrong. If we go in, what is our actual aim? To end Assad? To rule in his place? How long would we stay? To put in a sockpuppet - or what we hope is a sockpuppet - government? When was the last time that method worked? Assuming that Assad gassed his own folk, would we be backing anyone better...better than Amin, or Hussein, or Mugabe? Our track record is not good.

I don't know what the answer is. All I can think of is that instead of sending warships, perhaps we should send aid to the refugee camps, send doctors and nurses, vehicles, medical supplies, atropine, food for God's sake...help to rehome these people. That alone is a massive undertaking.

I don't know if that's right, if that's a solution, but it is a start. Perhaps Baghdad is better now than in Hussein's time, surely it must be.

But there is something about all this that seems very odd. Trying to put my finger on it, I guess it is my suspicion that the government are using this as a handwaving ploy; to get us furious at the evils of Syria while our rights get carved up before our very eyes.

I remember a bright eyed clever man who screwed things up, despite all his smarts.

There's no such cleverness around now.

Date: 2013-08-26 07:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] happybat.livejournal.com
Interestingly, in Romania Gordon Brown is regarded as the saviour of the British - and to some extent the European - economy. People look uncomprehending and ask why we got rid of him.

No man is a prophet in his neighbour's country, I suppose.

Date: 2013-08-27 07:30 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] smokingboot.livejournal.com
I think as with many, he did some great things and some things that were not so great. His personal determination to fight child poverty was admirable, and keeping us out of the Eurozone sensible. There were other decisions he made that perhaps were more hmmmmm!

I was appalled by the whole 'Money's Not There,' thing at the end of his last term. How could that be?

But he was a much more honourable person than Cameron/Clegg. And I think history will be kind to him.

Date: 2013-08-26 09:28 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] semyaza.livejournal.com
We've been here before, more than once. It will end badly because it always does. And this could be far, far worse.

Date: 2013-08-27 07:22 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] smokingboot.livejournal.com
I completely agree with you.

Date: 2013-08-27 12:00 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] caddyman.livejournal.com
The biggest problem with Syria, is that while it is clear (for a given value of 'clear') that 'something must be done', there are obious victims and obvious bad guys, but no obvious good guys. Which means supporting one set of bad guys over another, or becoming bad guys ourselves!

In the meantime, watch the Kurdish Nation State slowly coalesce around the fringes of all the recent horrors. That will probably kick off next.

Date: 2013-08-27 05:00 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] smokingboot.livejournal.com
Afghanistan all over again...and that went so well...


Why would things kick off around a Kurdish state? An issue for Turkey, I guess?
Edited Date: 2013-08-27 06:02 pm (UTC)

Date: 2013-08-27 09:14 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] caddyman.livejournal.com
No-one in the area, other than the Kurds, obviously, want a Kurdish state. It would claim chunks of Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Without looking at a map of the region, I think parts of Jordan and Iran, too.

Those worthy nations do not wish to lose territory.

Date: 2013-08-27 09:16 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] caddyman.livejournal.com
Just looked at map - NOT Jordan, but the others have substantial and interconnected Kurdish lands.

Date: 2013-08-27 10:06 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] smokingboot.livejournal.com
What a benighted mess!

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