Salisbury to Sarajevo
Mar. 15th, 2018 07:12 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
smokingbootThe idiot's war.
Cui Bono, who stands to gain from the bungled poisoning in Salisbury?
What does it do for Putin? It could make things more difficult for his kremlin allies who have been funding the Tory party for years, it could potentially make things tough for those laundering Russian mafia money in London, brings him some opprobrium across the world, justifies European sanctions being extended, may unite his enemies, puts pressure on seeming allies like Trump to speak out against him. What does he get for all this?
He already has the Russian election sewn up. People think that Russians consider the poisoning of a double agent a sign of his 'tough guy' image? Really? How stupid do we think these people are? This event is not going to affect their opinions or votes one way or another, even assuming those opinions/votes actually matter to him. It may be adding to Russia's sense of being picked on by the world. That could be the real plus.
Reasons for thinking it was Russia? There's form of course, with Litvinenko. This kind of killing has the Russian signature all over it, so either Putin's agents were supremely nonchalant about the potential effects listed above, or someone wanted this to look like the Russians did it.
So who does benefit? Well, Theresa May doesn't come out of it so badly. Maybe there's a sense of banding together, the unity she has been begging for but that's kind of it. This is her Falklands moment, political capital, a fortunate unfortunate.
It gets people all worked up over Corbyn, or would have done if the Times hadn't broken the donations story, but anxious folk may now elevate May out of total uselessness to a position as the least worst choice, especially when other rivals need to keep quiet: Johnson, Gove, and Rees-Mogg all have connections to Legatum, the pro-Brexit think tank which in turn has funding connections to Gazprom. They will probably be a little more circumspect in their pressure, a route to number 10 momentarily obscured. Other weirdness; we are a signatory to this Chemical Weapons Convention. Why aren't we following its conditions?
It's odd. If Russia did it, removing diplomats is too small a response, and physical retaliation is too great. The efficient thing to do would be to hit them in the pocket; we're still selling nuclear substances to Russia. But May won't want to go near that because oligarchs and kremlin allies have been donating to the Tory party. So what will she do? Make noises, move diplomats; nothing, while the sabre rattling grows louder, and the belligerent fever that grips this country turns into an international cold war.
Do I think it possible? I do. This is the most dangerously incompetent government we have had in decades, and that's setting the bar low.Do I think Putin's government could have done this? I do. But it would be a very stupid act. The papers are full of how terrible Putin is, and he might be, but stupid? Where's the evidence for that?
Right now this country is just a nonsense sandwich.
Cui Bono, who stands to gain from the bungled poisoning in Salisbury?
What does it do for Putin? It could make things more difficult for his kremlin allies who have been funding the Tory party for years, it could potentially make things tough for those laundering Russian mafia money in London, brings him some opprobrium across the world, justifies European sanctions being extended, may unite his enemies, puts pressure on seeming allies like Trump to speak out against him. What does he get for all this?
He already has the Russian election sewn up. People think that Russians consider the poisoning of a double agent a sign of his 'tough guy' image? Really? How stupid do we think these people are? This event is not going to affect their opinions or votes one way or another, even assuming those opinions/votes actually matter to him. It may be adding to Russia's sense of being picked on by the world. That could be the real plus.
Reasons for thinking it was Russia? There's form of course, with Litvinenko. This kind of killing has the Russian signature all over it, so either Putin's agents were supremely nonchalant about the potential effects listed above, or someone wanted this to look like the Russians did it.
So who does benefit? Well, Theresa May doesn't come out of it so badly. Maybe there's a sense of banding together, the unity she has been begging for but that's kind of it. This is her Falklands moment, political capital, a fortunate unfortunate.
It gets people all worked up over Corbyn, or would have done if the Times hadn't broken the donations story, but anxious folk may now elevate May out of total uselessness to a position as the least worst choice, especially when other rivals need to keep quiet: Johnson, Gove, and Rees-Mogg all have connections to Legatum, the pro-Brexit think tank which in turn has funding connections to Gazprom. They will probably be a little more circumspect in their pressure, a route to number 10 momentarily obscured. Other weirdness; we are a signatory to this Chemical Weapons Convention. Why aren't we following its conditions?
It's odd. If Russia did it, removing diplomats is too small a response, and physical retaliation is too great. The efficient thing to do would be to hit them in the pocket; we're still selling nuclear substances to Russia. But May won't want to go near that because oligarchs and kremlin allies have been donating to the Tory party. So what will she do? Make noises, move diplomats; nothing, while the sabre rattling grows louder, and the belligerent fever that grips this country turns into an international cold war.
Do I think it possible? I do. This is the most dangerously incompetent government we have had in decades, and that's setting the bar low.Do I think Putin's government could have done this? I do. But it would be a very stupid act. The papers are full of how terrible Putin is, and he might be, but stupid? Where's the evidence for that?
Right now this country is just a nonsense sandwich.
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no subject
Date: 2018-03-15 12:04 pm (UTC)I feel as though I'm living in some sort of reenactment of Tiberius's Rome.
And that the only way out is for a large asteroid to collide with Earth and wipe out humanity.
Which would be tough on my kids. :-)
no subject
Date: 2018-03-15 05:32 pm (UTC)Certainly Trump has been scattergun in his comments about most political situations/neighbours/adversaries/allies so his attitude towards Putin's Russia is a puzzling contrast.It would be a real irony if Trump turned out to be correct not to leap in with the gang on this one. They say even a stopped clock is right twice a day!
no subject
Date: 2018-03-16 01:56 pm (UTC)Oh, he finally joined the gang. Although if real life were a John LeCarre novel, you Brits would have poisoned the spy! :-)
I think Tiberius. Lip service is still being paid to the Republic in some quarters.
no subject
Date: 2018-03-16 03:15 pm (UTC)We're not called 'Perfidious Albion' without reason ;-)
Re the Republic, it's very hard to gauge how things are going from the outside.I hope for his sake, as well as his country's that Trump is no Tiberius.